Property & Economic Opportunity

Identifying Montgomery's vacant property clusters and their correlation with crime — giving the planning department a prioritized intervention list, not a raw data dump.

~4,200

Est. Vacant Properties

No active permit 3+ years

~1,800

High-Crime-Proximity

Within 0.25mi of crime cluster

$180M+

Est. Potential Tax Value

If redeveloped at market rate

+34%

Crime Near Vacant Props

vs. occupied-block average

Geographic Concentration

West Montgomery

Highest combined score on vacancy density, crime proximity, and land cost. The city's highest-leverage single intervention zone.

Capitol Heights

Second-highest vacancy cluster. High overlap with crime density — addresses here correlate strongly with burglary and larceny incidents.

Midtown / Old Cloverdale

Lower vacancy, active investment signals. Serves as a baseline for what targeted intervention can achieve in adjacent areas.

Economic Development Context

Meta & AWS Data Centers

~2,000+ incoming jobs. Highest-vacancy neighborhoods also have the highest unemployment — a direct pipeline opportunity if designated as workforce zones.

Tax Revenue Unlock

4,200 vacant properties represent an estimated $180M+ in unrealized taxable value. Targeted redevelopment of even the top 250 properties yields $8–12M in new annual revenue.

Unemployment Rate: 6.2%

Above state and national averages. Concentrated in the same neighborhoods flagged by vacancy data — making workforce development and redevelopment complementary, not competing, priorities.

Methodology

Vacancy is inferred from the Montgomery Building Permit database (2014–present): properties with no permit activity in the last 3 years are flagged as likely vacant or inactive. This is a proxy measure — some inactive-permit properties may still be occupied. Crime correlation is calculated using spatial proximity: incidents within 0.25 miles of a vacancy cluster (90-day window) are counted. AI recommendations are generated by Anthropic Claude claude-sonnet-4-6 using neighborhood-specific context including zoning, market conditions, and crime data.